Abstract
Introduction
Materials and Methods
Results
Conclusion
Keywords
Introduction
National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) clinical practice guidelines in oncology(NCCN® guidelines): Small Cell Lung Cancer (Version.1.2022) https://www.nccn.org.
Methods
Model Structure
Model Survival and Progression Risk Estimates
Variable | Baseline Value | Range | Reference | Distribution | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Minimum | Maximum | ||||
Clinical data | |||||
Weibull survival model for OS | |||||
Lenvatinib plus Pembrolizumab | Scale=0.0019236, Shape=1.5242541 | - | - | 6 | - |
Lenvatinib plus Everolimus | Scale=0.021345, Shape=0.923460 | - | - | 6 | - |
Sunitinib | Scale=0.021345, Shape=0.903782 | - | - | 6 | - |
Weibull survival model for PFS | |||||
Lenvatinib plus Pembrolizumab | Scale=0.021166, Shape=1.121156 | - | - | 6 | - |
Lenvatinib plus Everolimus | Scale=0.057445, Shape=0.948028 | - | - | 6 | - |
Sunitinib | Scale=0.090146, Shape=0.917991 | - | - | 6 | - |
Rate of treatment discontinuation | |||||
Lenvatinib plus Pembrolizumab | 0.600 | - | - | 6 | - |
Lenvatinib plus Everolimus | 0.686 | - | - | 6 | - |
Sunitinib | 0.812 | - | - | 6 | - |
Risk for main adverse events in LP group | |||||
Risk of diarrhea | 0.097 | 0.078 | 0.116 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of hypertension | 0.276 | 0.221 | 0.331 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of weight decrease | 0.080 | 0.064 | 0.096 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of proteinuria | 0.077 | 0.062 | 0.092 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of asthenia | 0.054 | 0.043 | 0.065 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of lipase increased | 0.128 | 0.102 | 0.154 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of amylase increased | 0.091 | 0.073 | 0.109 | 6 | Beta |
Risk for main AEs in LP group | |||||
Risk of diarrhea | 0.115 | 0.092 | 0.138 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of hypertension | 0.225 | 0.180 | 0.270 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of decreased appetite | 0.062 | 0.050 | 0.074 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of fatigue | 0.076 | 0.061 | 0.091 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of stomatitis | 0.062 | 0.050 | 0.074 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of weight decrease | 0.073 | 0.058 | 0.088 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of proteinuria | 0.082 | 0.066 | 0.098 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of asthenia | 0.051 | 0.041 | 0.061 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of hypertriglyceridemia | 0.113 | 0.090 | 0.136 | 6 | Beta |
Risk for main AEs in sunitinib group | |||||
Risk of diarrhea | 0.053 | 0.150 | 0.226 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of hypertension | 0.188 | 0.042 | 0.064 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of anemia | 0.053 | 0.070 | 0.106 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of lipase increased | 0.088 | 0.052 | 0.078 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of hypertriglyceridemia | 0.065 | 0.050 | 0.074 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of platelet count decreased | 0.062 | 0.045 | 0.067 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of thrombocytopenia | 0.056 | 0.047 | 0.071 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of neutropenia | 0.059 | 0.045 | 0.067 | 6 | Beta |
Risk of neutrophil count decreased | 0.056 | 0.150 | 0.226 | 6 | Beta |
Health preference data | |||||
Utility | |||||
Utility PFS in first-line treatment | 0.760 | 0.608 | 0.912 | 12 | Beta |
Utility PFS in sunitinib | 0.730 | 0.584 | 0.876 | 13 | Beta |
Utility PD | 0.660 | 0.528 | 0.792 | 12 | Beta |
Disutility due to AEs | |||||
Diarrhea | 0.050 | 0.040 | 0.060 | 16 | Beta |
Hypertension | 0.050 | 0.040 | 0.060 | 14 | Beta |
Decreased appetite | 0.274 | 0.219 | 0.329 | 12 | Beta |
Fatigue | 0.751 | 0.601 | 0.901 | 15 | Beta |
Anemia | 0.676 | 0.541 | 0.811 | 15 | Beta |
Platelet count decreased | 0.650 | 0.520 | 0.700 | 16 | Beta |
Thrombocytopenia | 0.650 | 0.520 | 0.780 | 16 | Beta |
Neutrophil count decreased | 0.460 | 0.368 | 0.552 | 14 | Beta |
Neutropenia | 0.500 | 0.400 | 0.600 | 14 | Beta |
Discount rate | 0.030 | - | - | 20 | - |
Utility Estimates
Cost Inputs
Parameters | Baseline Value | Range | Reference | Distribution | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Minimum | Maximum | ||||
Drug cost, $/per 1 mg | |||||
Lenvatinib | 12.693 | 10.154 | 15.231 | Gamma | |
Pembrolizumab | 51.616 | 41.293 | 61.939 | 20 | Gamma |
Everolimus | 89.596 | 71.677 | 107.515 | Gamma | |
Sunitinib | 16.906 | 13.525 | 20.288 | Gamma | |
Nivolumab | 28.487 | 22.790 | 34.184 | 20 | Gamma |
Cabozantinib | 223.820 | 179.056 | 268.584 | Gamma | |
Expenditures on main adverse events, $ | |||||
Diarrhea | 86.350 | 69.080 | 103.62 | 17 | Gamma |
Hypertension | 63.940 | 51.152 | 76.728 | 13 | Gamma |
Weight decrease | 7,439.210 | 5,951.368 | 8,927.052 | 18 | Gamma |
Proteinuria | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 18 | Gamma |
Decreased appetite | 7,064.170 | 5651.336 | 8477.004 | 18 | Gamma |
Fatigue | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 13 | Gamma |
Stomatitis | 121.140 | 96.912 | 145.368 | 18 | Gamma |
Anemia | 70.520 | 56.416 | 84.624 | 17 | Gamma |
Lipase increased | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 18 | Gamma |
Amylase increased | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 18 | Gamma |
Asthenia | 6,172.460 | 4,937.968 | 7,406.952 | 18 | Gamma |
Lipase increased | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 18 | Gamma |
Amylase increased | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 18 | Gamma |
Hypertriglyceridemia | 75.330 | 60.264 | 90.396 | 18 | Gamma |
Platelet count decreased | 9,709.000 | 7,767.200 | 11,650.800 | 17 | Gamma |
Thrombocytopenia | 9,709.000 | 7,767.200 | 11,650.800 | 17 | Gamma |
Neutrophil count decreased | 36,106.000 | 28,884.800 | 43,327.200 | 17 | Gamma |
Neutrophil | 36,106.000 | 28,884.800 | 43,327.200 | 17 | Gamma |
Follow-up and monitoring per cycle | 442.300 | 353.800 | 530.800 | 19 | Gamma |
Administration per cycle | 144.000 | 115.200 | 172.800 | 13 | Gamma |
Terminal care per cycle | 11,227 | 8,981.6 | 13,472.4 | 18 | Gamma |
https://www.drugs.com/price-guide. Accessed 2021.
Sensitivity Analysis
Results
Base Case Results
Sensitivity Analysis


Parameters | Lenvatinib Plus Pembrolizumab | Lenvatinib Plus Everolimus | Sunitinib |
---|---|---|---|
Lys | 5.98 | 6.26 | 5.36 |
QALYs | 4.16 | 4.15 | 3.49 |
Total cost $ | 1,120,020 | 1,163,723 | 1,031,423 |
ICER $/LY | 144,724 | 147,000 | - |
ICER $/QALY | 131,656 | 201,928 | - |
WTP $/QALY | 100,000-150,000 | - | - |
Discussion
Conclusion
Funding
Ethics approval and consent to participate
Availability of data and materials
Author Contributions
Clinical Practice Points
- •At present, there are various first-line treatment options for advanced renal cell carcinoma. Doctors and patients should consider not only the clinical benefits but also the cost-effectiveness. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out economic assessment.
- •We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of three strategies for advanced renal cell carcinoma:Lenvatinib plus Pembrolizumab (LP), Lenvatinib plus Everolimus (LE) and Sunitinib.
- •Our key parameters (survival curve, etc) were derived from large CLEAR Phase III clinical trials, and Markov model was established to calculate cost total cost of treatment, quality adjusted life years (QALY), incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICERs).
- •The model projected that life Expectancy of patients receiving LP and LE was 5.98 LYs and 6.26 LYs, Which were 0.62 LYs and 0.90 LYs more than those receiving sunitinib, respectively. Accounting for QoL, Receiving LP and LE received 4.16 and 4.15 QALYs, Which were 0.67 QALYs and 0.66 QALYs more than those receiving sunitinib, Respectively. The use of LP and LE cost an additional $88,597 and $132,300, Compared with Sunitinib, $131,656 and $201,928 per QALY ($144,724 and $147,000 per LY).
- •Our conclusions provide objective data reference for data when making clinical decisions, Individual treatment of patients, and reference for national health insurance decision-making.Table 4Results of Subgroup Analyses of lenvatinib Plus Pembrolizumab Group
Subgroup Simple Size OS HR (95% CI) PFS HR (95% CI) ICER Cost-effectiveness Probability at WTP LP Sunitinib $100,000/QALY $150,000/QALY Age <65y 194 225 0.63(0.41-0.95) 0.37(0.28-0.49) 187,842 15.89% 32.66% ≥65y 161 132 0.61(0.40-0.95) 0.43(0.31-0.61) 166,368 19.08% 39.52% Sex Male 255 275 0.70(0.49-0.99) 0.38(0.30-0.49) 168,327 21.59% 38.02% Female 100 82 0.54(0.30-0.94) 0.42(0.27-0.66) 181,285 13.63% 35.19% Geographic region Western Europe and North America 198 199 0.68(0.46-1.00) 0.42(0.32-0.57) 144,422 22.49% 51.67% Rest of the world 157 158 0.63(0.40-0.99) 0.36(0.26-0.49) 159,621 15.16% 46.58% MSKCC risk group Favorable 96 97 0.86(0.38-1.92) 0.36(0.23-0.54) 94,083 49.46% 56.89% Intermediate 227 228 0.66(0.47-0.94) 0.44(0.34-0.58) 145,780 23.26% 42.30% Poor 32 32 0.50(0.23-1.08) 0.18(0.08-0.42) 291,025 3.18% 11.84% IMDC risk group Favorable 110 124 1.15(0.55-2.40) 0.41(0.28-0.62) Dominated - - Intermediate 210 192 0.72(0.5-1.05) 0.39(0.29-0.52) 143,804 23.61% 51.19% Poor 33 37 0.30(0.14-0.64) 0.28(0.13-0.60) 237,919 4.65% 14.52% Baseline Karnofsky performance-status score 100-90 295 294 0.88(0.47-1.67) 0.38(0.3-0.48) 159,230 24.15% 40.01% 80-70 60 62 0.56(0.40-0.79) 0.44(0.36-0.74) 182,444 12.08% 34.69% No. of organs with metastases 1 97 108 0.88(0.47-1.67) 0.46(0.30-0.71) Dominated - - ≥2 254 246 0.56(0.40-0.79) 0.46(0.28-0.47) 200,719 12.31% 31.04% PD-L1 combined positive score ≥ 1% 107 119 0.76(0.46-1.27) 0.40(0.27-0.58) 138,093 24.37% 54.59% < 1% 112 103 0.50(0.28-0.89) 0.39(0.26-0.59) 177,592 13.87% 36.65% Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; ICER, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; IMDC, International Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Database Consortium; LP, Lenvatinib plus Pembrolizumab; MSKCC, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center; OS HR, overall survival hazard ratio; PD-L1, programmed cell death-Ligand 1;PFS HR, progression-free survival hazard ratio; QALY, quality-adjusted life-year;WTP, willingness-to-pay.a Subgroup analyses were dominated either due to their lower health benefits and higher costs or because they were not considered cost-effective since the ICER far exceeded the WTP threshold of the US.
Disclosure
Acknowledgments
Appendix. Supplementary materials
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